Thursday, November 15, 2012

Gaza Rockets & Shin Bet Reports – A Guide for Journalists

Challah Hu Akbar 
Earlier today, Dan Murphy of the Christian Science Monitor tried to figure out how many rockets and mortars have been fired from Gaza into Israel between January 2012 and October 2012. “How many rockets were fired from Gaza at Israel this year?,” the title of his piece asked.

According to Murphy, he “distilled the numbers of mortar and rocket attacks published by the Shin Bet in its monthly reports for January-October.” Murphy claimed to have “triple checked” the reports, which are easily accessible in English and Hebrew.
So, what’s the problem?
 
In short, Murphy conflated the total number of attacks (aka launchings) and the total number of rockets and mortars fired. If one does this (counts attacks rather than rockets and mortars) then the amount of rockets and mortars fired from Gaza into Israel will appear much lower than its true figure. It must be made clear that one attack or launching can include multiple rockets and/or mortars.
Murphy should have known this, especially if he "triple checked," because the Shin Bet adds the following message in their PDF releases.
Below is a photo of Murphy’s original compiled data as well as a chart showing what he did wrong. I let Murphy know all of this in a series of tweets. After challenging me, and then being pushed back, Murphy decided to block me for “too much snark and condescension.” 
Interestingly, from the same tweet we see that Murphy admitted that “perhaps” he had counted attacks rather than the total number of rockets and mortars.  Murphy has since updated (see photo below) his piece (he gave credit to someone else for pointing out his error), but the data is still incorrect in some places.
First, in January there were 16 rockets and mortars, not 15 as Murphy’s new post says. Additionally, Murphy’s new post claims that the total is 552. However, using the amount he provides in his new post, we see that the numbers actually add up to 723.

Month
Shin Bet Rocket and Mortar Count
Shin Bet Count of Attacks/Launchings
Murphy's Original Count of Attacks/Launchings
Murphy's Updated Count of Rockets and Mortars
16
14
14
15
37
28
28
37
208
156
156
192
8
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
218
94
94
218
27
19
19
27
24
16
16
24
25
25
18
25
171
92
92
171
Total
740
458
451
552 (723)***
* There appears to be a discrepancy in some places with regard to the amount fired in March. In some places the Shin Bet puts the total at 208, however, in other places the total is listed as 192.
** Neither Murphy nor myself count the rockets that originated in the Sinai in April
*** As noted above, Murphy’s own data reaches a total of 723, however, his post says 552. 

Murphy's Original:
 Murphy's Update:

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