The French press agency headline says it all: “Egypt's [President] Morsi assumes sweeping powers, branded new pharaoh.” Mursi has issued a decree giving himself virtually dictatorial powers and contradicting the assumption that he—and his Muslim Brotherhood organization—intend to rule democratically. Opposition forces said this constituted a coup.
Mursi’s
spokesman explained the decree in these terms: the president can issue
any decree he wishes to protect the revolution. "The constitutional
declarations, decisions and laws issued by the president are final and
not subject to appeal."
It
seems apparent this means to proceed toward the fundamental
transformation of Egypt into an Islamist, Sharia-ruled state. If one
views the 2011 revolution as a democratic one, then Mursi is destroying
it. But of course he and the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists see it
as an Islamist revolution, parallel to the 1979
Iranian revolution though in Egyptian terms, of course.
The
timing of this takeover is ironic since it coincides with an all-time
high for the Obama Administration’s regard for Egypt, following that
regime’s brokering of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, including a continuous
insistence from the U.S. government and mass media that the Brotherhood
was now moderate and pro-democratic.
It
is true that Mursi acted “pragmatically” on the ceasefire issue. But
what does that mean? He took into account his own regime interests and
didn’t just howl, “Alahu Akhbar!”
repeatedly. Westerners seem to think that for someone to be a radical
Islamist they have to be a wild man. If Usama bin Ladin wore a suit and
tie he’d still be alive today.
But
of course Mursi wants to stay in power and strengthen his regime. He’s
not going to throw away $10 billion in aid (U.S., EU, IMF) for some wild
adventure in the Gaza Strip that Hamas began without asking him. He
doesn’t yet control the country or the army. There’s no constitution and
no functioning parliament. If the Muslim Brotherhood has proven
anything it is that it has patience.
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According to the New York Times:
“Mr.
Obama told aides he was impressed with the Egyptian leader’s pragmatic
confidence. He sensed an engineer’s precision with surprisingly little
ideology. Most important, Mr. Obama told
aides that he considered Mr. Morsi a straight shooter who delivered on
what he promised and did not promise what he could not deliver.
“The
thing that appealed to the president was how practical the
conversations were — here’s the state of play, here are the issues we’re
concerned about,” said a senior administration official who spoke on
the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. “This was
somebody focused on solving problems.”
But the main problem Mursi is focused on is how to keep the Muslim Brotherhood in power, how to get lots of money from the West, and how to make Egypt into a radical Islamist state. Enforcing quiet in the Gaza Strip right now is part of that effort.
But the main problem Mursi is focused on is how to keep the Muslim Brotherhood in power, how to get lots of money from the West, and how to make Egypt into a radical Islamist state. Enforcing quiet in the Gaza Strip right now is part of that effort.
Being the main sponsor of Hamas, a terrorist group, used to be called that state sponsorship of terrorism, now it is to be admired as being, in the New York Times formulation, Hamas’s “most important international ally.”
Another interesting parallel is that Hamas, like the fellow Brotherhood branch in Egypt, won an election and then seized power completely. Things in Egypt have not yet gone that far but Mursi has taken a big step in that direction.
At
home, it has taken only a
few weeks for Mursi to return to dictatorship. The decree comes as
secular-minded groups demonstrate in the Tahrir Square area while the
Islamists call for suppressing them.
Mursi’s offensive seeks to give him the power to purge existing institutions and put supporters in control.
Perhaps
the highest priority is to take over the court system by appointing
Islamist judges. During the late Mubarak regime, judges were among the
most courageous of dissidents, issuing
decisions the government doesn’t like. After the revolution, judges
gave rulings against the Brotherhood’s goals, for example, saying that
the election of parliament—which is three-quarters Islamist—was illegal.
Mursi wants to reverse this ruling by decree rather than face new
elections where Islamist vote totals will probably plummet.
The
other key institutions are the armed forces, where top generals have
already resigned, and the religious establishment. While the chiefs of
Egypt’s religious system, including the powerful mosque-university
al-Azhar, are hardly liberal, they are also not systematic Islamists or
Brotherhood supporters. Once such people are
replaced with loyalists, the Brotherhood will have the power to define
Islam itself.
Given
the international authority of al-Azhar, which trains clerics for many
different countries, Sunni Islam from Morocco to Indonesia would be
closer to becoming thoroughly in line with revolutionary Islamist,
anti-Western, antisemitic thinking. That is not to say it is open,
liberal, and tolerant now. But the situation would be far worse and
destabilizing. For example, mainstream clerics would issue a stream of
rulings justifying terrorism and condemning anyone who cooperated with
the West.
The
Egyptian regime’s cooperation on a Gaza ceasefire, then, was in large
part intended to defuse any reaction against its movement toward
dictatorship at home. It is doubtful, for example, that the Obama
Administration will condemn the new decree giving Mursi total power in
the country. And Egypt will get almost $10 billion in aid from the
United States, European Union, and International Monetary Fund, even as
it becomes a repressive, Islamist state.
Barry
Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs
(GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International
Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest book, Israel: An Introduction, has just been published by Yale University Press. Other recent books include The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center and of his blog, Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies,http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713636933%22
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